Assessment and prognosis

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So, what’s new in Syria.

The Russians threw all but the kitchen sink at it. They moved in their capital naval assets, their capital aerospatial defense assets, airforce assets and probably have several satellites covering it at all times.

Essentially, they put enough of their forces there to perform three functions. First, that Syria doesn’t follow the pattern of Iraq and Libya in becoming a jihadist post-apocalyptic banana republic. Second, that Americans don’t succeed in destroying all Russian allies one by one, and fencing off Russia with a five meter tall concrete wall, according to the principle of “Is the wall finished? – Yes. -Then start filling with water.”

The third function of the military buildup is drawing a line. If the Americans attack any government assets in Syria, it will be an attack on Russia, which will be dealt with swiftly and violently. Essentially, Syria is now under Russian military umbrella.

What does that mean? First of all, it means that a no-fly zone administered by Russian armed forces has been established in Syria. It doesn’t mean that Americans and their allies can’t fly there, just that they aren’t allowed to perform offensive acts without permission from Russian and/or Syrian government. If they do, they will be taken down. And yes, that includes “stealth” aircraft, because “stealth” is bullshit, it’s a problem the Russians solved more than a decade ago with a few lines of code, basically saying that if something with radar signature of a ping-pong ball flies at supersonic speeds it’s not a seagull, it’s an American jet, so don’t delete it as noise from the radar screen, but instead define it as a priority target. If you believe that the Russians couldn’t do it, you’re a fucking idiot. All Russian radar-guided missiles can shoot down “stealth” assets without any difficulty.

Let’s make a high-probability tit-for-tat scenario.

Americans attack a Syrian government asset. The Russians stage a layered response: first, they send a “cease and desist” order. Second, they send in the fighter jets to intimidate the Americans. If that doesn’t work, they shoot them down. This, of course, makes the Americans mad, and so they retaliate against some Russian asset, for instance they barrage the aerospatial defense battery with cruise missiles. The Russians then destroy the asset that was used to launch the missiles. The state of war is then declared between Russia and America. Russia then uses cruise missiles to knock out all important American assets in the middle east and Europe in preparation for a strategic nuclear exchange. I would expect that they knock out all satellites from orbit, starting with the GPS network and all the military assets, tear down all transatlantic cables and start sinking American Ohio class submarines and Nimitz class aircraft carriers, knock down the electric grid in America, knock down the command chain and the nuclear silos, essentially forcing America to immediately surrender without killing off its population.

If America still manages to squeeze off a few hundred ICBMs toward Russia, I would expect 10 out of 200 to pass the Russian anti-ballistic shield, destroying Moscow, St.Petersburg and several other major cities in Russia. The Russians will then get very angry and destroy all major cities in America, killing about 250 million Americans instantly, and the rest will starve, die of various illnesses and resort to murder, plundering and cannibalism before eventually perishing. America will disappear from history, China will take over as the world’s greatest power, Russia will rebuild within a few decades, Europe will be engulfed in a major civil war with the Muslim population, Japan and South Korea will make a peaceful alliance with China, North Korea will be taken over and transformed peacefully by the South, and Israel will be in shit creek without paddles. Within a hundred years, the American wasteland will be colonized by the Latin-American population from Mexico and turned into a typical Latin-American shithole of violence, corruption and poverty. Russia will be reduced to China’s protectorate. Europe will become a war-torn shithole. All the rich people who escaped to New Zealand will be dug out of their holes, killed and their carcasses thrown to the dogs, as everybody will understand it’s all their fault. Australia will be commandeered by China. Chinese economy will collapse, as it is based on export which will vanish, and popular revolt will destroy their socio-political system, turning them into a civil-war-torn shithole.

Everybody who will have anything positive to say about America will be seen the same way as the neo-nazis are seen today. Civilization, as it is now, will never recover. There will be endless regional wars that will prevent any accumulation of wealth, global connectivity will be permanently lost, and the world will descend into savegery. This will continue until the next ice age, which will raise the probability of human extinction to double-digit values. It’s anyone’s guess whether human species will exit the ice age at all, and in what condition. So that’s my prognosis if the Americans follow the course they are most likely to follow. They will of course think that they have the military superiority over the Russians, but they are miscalculating because they indeed do have the conventional advantages, but the Russian nuclear forces are two decades ahead of them and the conflict will escalate to nuclear level very quickly. The Americans simply don’t calculate with the fact that they are dealing with a spacefaring opponent now, who can strip them of their high-tech layer and proceed to dismember them very quickly and efficiently. They would be idiots to mess with Russia, but yeah, that’s what they are, so they inevitably will.

As I see it now, there was a reasonable probability of mankind avoiding a nuclear war before the Sochi Olympics; since then, the probability of war rose sharply with every attempt of America to cow the Russians into submission, and now, I put it at 99.9%, because the only way it can be avoided is if America miraculously starts acting opposite to everything it’s been doing since the 1990s. The only way I see the nuclear war being avoided is if the Gods pull the plug first, which is what I hope will happen, because I would seriously dislike dying of dysentery while eating garbage and drinking filthy water in a post-nuclear wasteland.

30 thoughts on “Assessment and prognosis”

  1. “The only way I see the nuclear war being avoided is if the Gods pull the plug first, which is what I hope will happen, because I would seriously dislike dying of dysentery while eating garbage and drinking filthy water in a post-nuclear wasteland.”

    Is “first, everybody dies” scenario necessary prerequisite of “pulling the plug”, or the plug can be pulled and everybody would just find themselves to be in some other reality?

    Furthermore, if this world is really rendered on demand, and if everyone’s dead, is there any illusion left anymore? It’s like that old George Berkeley philosophical question about the falling tree in the forest, and there’s nobody to hear it. World’s “engine” and its mechanics would still maybe exist, but it would be impossible for anyone to incarnate here anymore.

    I must admit it’s quite difficult to imagine what kind of scenario would kill *all* life on Earth. Even if you hit it with an asteroid and split it in half, some anaerobic bacterial life would still be fine I guess. A black hole would get the job done though.

            • As for the prophecies, any accurate information about the end-date is off-limits. It’s the best guarded secret up there. I know to what lengths the Gods are going to keep me from guessing it, and Jesus also said that only Father knows it. So I’m very skeptical about anyone’s ability to get that information, even in the ballpark order of magnitude of accuracy.

              • Just wanted to cheer you up: https://youtu.be/aB2yqeD0Nus

                I think all eyes up there are on you too. Even the Gods must have been worried and scared for you, nothing is certain, can someone imagine their fear after Jesus? How many of your kind was tortured by SK here? So it’s a two way street for God I think. Risking His finest (for us low life hah). I just wish all beings see that, your life like a movie then, it’s certainly what I wish for to witness in full view /if I don’t fall apart/.
                But that tremendous gem will be “on repeat” for a long time I feel, and that will be the evolution then for everyone. The thought of “Danijel” and “He will fix it” is so warm, focusing on that makes the fear non important. It’s interesting how in my prayers I try to focus on Babaji, but somehow you always pop up as a door thought. You are the door.
                So yeah, we’re all counting on you.

  2. I’m just curious about your prognosis relating to China.

    Why do you think their economy would collapse if they had to rely less on exports? They’ve been quite good at adapting so far, and the reason they are more export oriented is because that’s what works best right now. However, they already started to shift towards domestic consumption. Just one fun fact: the Chinese box office revenue increased by nearly 50% in 2015, over the previous year, and Imax chief estimates that China will surpass US in box office revenue and number of screens by 2017.

    Not quite sure I understand the reasoning behind civil war either. Economic downturn is a quite different scenario from the one which caused the civil war last time.

    If I understood correctly, you estimate that Russia and the US will nuke each other, but other nuclear countries won’t get involved. How likely do you think that is? I was under the impression that it’s not possible to have a nuclear war without China siding with Russia, willingly or unwillingly (as a retaliation).

    • I think America will aim for China, as well, yes. However, that will mean that the Chinese nuclear subs will nuke America in addition to what the Russia will do, so I expect America to be a smoldering radioactive parking lot for the next several decades at least.

      As for the Chinese economy, in the case of a nuclear war it will have a rapid collapse with almost immediate social unrests following. Their communist regime has been maintaining itself in power mostly due to economic growth caused by huge manufacturing and exports income. This leads to my conclusion. They also have a very tenuous state of economy already, with that crazy building spree. None of it looks stable.

      As for other nuclear countries, when Russia takes America out in a matter of hours, they will have their tail between their legs and phone Putin begging for mercy and promising neutrality. That’s the most likely outcome. Alternatively, Europe will be wiped out within the first two days of the conflict.

      • Also, why do I assume the Russians will take out America. First of all, the Russians know everything about America, and the opposite is not the case. Second, the newest Ohio class submarine is 19 years old, and that’s their best nuclear asset. The Russian strategic nuclear submarines, including the rockets, are brand new. The Americans haven’t properly refurbished their assets, while the Russians have. Third, the Americans are not taking seriously the possibility of getting hit. Fourth, the Russians and the Chinese have been testing their capabilities against the Americans for several years now, and I base my conclusions on the outcomes of those tests. The Americans would know what happened only after it was all over.

        • “Third, the Americans are not taking seriously the possibility of getting hit.”

          Somehow this still don’t quite get in my head.

          I mean, I still remember the first time I read some wikileaks of the reports US was getting from Croatia, Bosnia and neighbouring countries. I was completely blown away how nuanced, detailed and accurate those reports were. I thought to myself, holy shit, these guys really know their stuff, they know everything about everyone. Those reports were so good I’m not even sure any of the local journalists would be able to write so non-biased and in-depth psychological profiles of local mayors and other political figures. So, if they are ready to invest such effort in completely submissive and irrelevant countries, what is to be expected when we speak about Russia and China?

          It’s all too obvious that US intelligence gathering network is not their problem, it’s the decisions they make. How can anyone at the CIA think they could survive direct confrontation with modern and well developed nuclear power? Sure they don’t, even if some idiot politician does. Maybe Trump will get some covert help in unexpected ways from those who have brains, I don’t know…

          I mean, I’m trying to get into the heads of those who are trying to provoke the Russians into a nuclear exchange, just for the sake of understanding, but I can’t get much sense of it really. Do they think that anti-ballistic missile shield is so good it will turn all ICBMs into free McChickens falling from the sky?

      • India and Pakistan are playing up again and are both nuclear powers. With India getting closer to US recently and not having best relationship or trust with China, there is also the danger of India taking sides or being drawn in by the US or pushed by Pakistan (who in turn is backed by China).
        Its not looking good at all.

        • The funny thing is, something wholly unexpected could happen there that would completely dislodge the American WW3 plans. For instance, if India and Pakistan nuke each other to oblivion, it might actually be enough of a disaster to make everybody else reconsider their shit. Then again, it might be a trigger that gets everything else going. As I said, the situation is complex beyond my ability to predict outcomes clearly.

      • Chinese are big planners, they have probably calculated these scenarios when they partnered with Russia, and they have a huge strategic partnership, but with a far smaller chance of getting hit than Russia has, after all China owns half of America. What will be there for China to do when their buyers – USA and Europe get destroyed? They will pronounce the next big “5 year plan” and turn to fascism and rule, they will expand not to collapse, just like Rome did. They are already building the One belt railroad to Europe, and roads to Rome were not built for tourism.

        Not so long ago they demonstrated to Obama how close they can come to Los Angeles, launch a nuke and produce a continent wide EMP. Also they have the fastest hypersonic vehicle. China is the Tricky Dick here, not to be too trusted

  3. Well, as it has been already pointed out, in the sea of your brightly sparkling cheerful articles, this is by far the most relaxing one.

    However, US elections are one month away. Since Trump is having good chances of winning, and Russians of course know that, the level of provocations sufficient enough to start a nuclear war must be enormous, I think you would have to literally take a shit on the Russian’s heads, and do it three times in a row – and perhaps even then they would play stupid.

    But the real question is what he can do about it even if he wins.
    As Paul C. Roberts mentioned in the interview you posted yesterday, CIA and few different interest lobbies are the real US government, so if they don’t like him, there’s still a chance they’ll find a way to bypass his decisions.

    • I don’t think Trump would help the situation much. First of all, the real decision-makers in America are career bureaucrats, not the elected officials – as you noticed. Second, I think the pro-ww3 lobby is so strong, and their rationale is so strong, it is more likely for them to convince Trump of their stance than for him to change their minds or replace them. Third, there is such a thing as inertia. For instance, if they create a political scenario in which they’ll enter a shooting war with Russia, it would be very difficult for Trump to go against that inertia, as was the case with the Vietnam war – however the president felt about it, he couldn’t just withdraw from it, because the entire momentum of the military was behind it.
      So, it’s the inertia that makes me believe that the worst outcome is inevitable. For instance, if Trump actually was elected, how long do you think it would take for him to transform the liberal media to the point of giving him favorable coverage? The entire media structure would have to collapse and be replaced by the alternative media in order for that to happen. Also, the idiots in Congress who think that islands float on water and can tip over if you land too many people there, they will remain there and vote against anything sensible.
      So, unlike the people who think that electing Trump will solve all the world’s problems, I am more skeptical. I think America passed the point of no return and is now taking the rest of the world with it to hell. This is the event precedented only by the fall of the Western Roman Empire, and the civilizational consequences will likely be similar. You couldn’t reform Rome by putting a good emperor on the throne; the causes of its failure were systemic, not incidental.

      • One thing I’ve noticed about Trump, he is probably the candidate of big pharma, health insurance companies, he never attacks them, he always defends them on rally speeches, and wants to repeal their government healthcare. He’s very passionate about that and that’s a pointer.

  4. Well that was really optimistic article 😉

    It is interesting that American attack on Syrian asset could happen tomorrow, next week or after some time, presumably after elections. We can’t know for sure and that is what is frankly, frightening me, as I made similar analysis to yours in case of escalation.

    • Yeah, I’m a ray of sunshine. 🙂
      I’m afraid that something is going to happen before the elections, because Trump is leading by a rather large margin, so they can either outright steal the elections, which is risky business because civil war, or they can provoke a war with Russia hoping they will thus discredit Trump who is a pro-negotiation candidate.

      It sounds completely crazy, but apparently that election is important there because Trump inserted a wrench into their machinery in some way, because he’s an actual independent candidate, so the elections aren’t fixed before they even take place, and he could mess up their entire super-corrupt system.

      They apparently really need that nuclear war to hide the collapse of their economy, they needed it 2 years ago and Putin wasn’t biting, and I guess we’re out of time now. When shit starts unrolling, it won’t unroll quickly, there will probably be weeks of recalculations and asset placements between every significant move, the Russians will try to slow things down in order to allow the Americans to change their course, but if the Americans are in a hurry, the Russians will strike, and it will be a strike such as the Americans never experienced nor could dream of in their worst nightmares. They are dealing with an enemy who can kill their capital assets in a single blow, all at once, around the world, up to the geosynchronous orbit.

        • Fake polls. In leaked Hillary’s emails she admits falling behind by quite a margin.
          They fake it by sampling significantly more democrats than republicans and also declaring pro-Hillary voters as “independents”. Alex Jones caught that one some time ago.

          • Very simple, although clever tactic. I wanted to ask you before this, have you heard about ISGP website?

            https://isgp-studies.com/

            These guys have proposed 4 establishments model that really fits in the current mess in the world. Remember how you talked about true leadership behind America? How there seem to be factions more then a true government?
            According to them, US is divided among Liberal Establishment, Conservative Establishment and Zionist Establishment. When they play their usual game of thrones, you get this. On one hand aggressive US, then seems to back down, then it seems to have long term plans regarding destruction of Islam, and again, seems to be simply mad. Fits nicely.

            Also its obvious from this model, that Hillary is part of Liberal E., which is currently most powerful one, and owns all “liberal media”. Trump is backed by Conservative E., who probably owns alt right.
            I am personally for Trump as his reasoning is completely sane when compared to the Liberals, but I think we cannot let ourselves go thinking that there are free and independent players in this high stakes poker game.

          • It’s incredible that people want to vote for her, this is Hillary: https://youtu.be/cCDzRtZLUkc I don’t know how stupid people believe she’s pro women. Also because of this I think she had no moral dilemmas in her life, like hiring thugs to threaten Bill’s victims or destroying countries, and this deceptive person wants to be judge to Russia. You know when you said that SK micromanaged everything, this must be it, because deception is her trademark.

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