Countdown

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I found this on Telegram this morning:

Australia’s Energy Minister: “We only have enough gasoline for 18 days, diesel fuel for 16 days, and aviation fuel for 14 days. And a ship from the Persian Gulf takes 2 to 4 weeks to arrive.”

I went to check the sources, and I found this. Basically, the statement was from the beginning of March, and the Russians just did the math, and they are very good at math. It checks out.

I would assume that everybody who is dependent on Arab oil is in a similar situation. The Russians and everybody attached to them as a source are perfectly fine. The American colonies are fucked.

This means that, as of now, Russia is the most powerful economic force in the world. They determine who lives and who dies. Everybody else is living on strategic reserves that are being depleted quickly, because they are trying to bring down oil prices in order to pretend that, politically, this is nothing. This means they will all run out of strategic reserves within two to three weeks, after which there’ll be doomsday.

So, either everybody instantly takes measures to extend the duration of their strategic reserve, by raising oil prices and rationing supply, and take measures to secure Russian oil, because it’s not sure how much of a surge in supply the Russians will be able to create, regardless of intent. Those things have technological limits. Pipelines are designed for some projected demand and so on.

Israel and America seems to have run out of air defence. Everything Iran launches now, hits the target. Iran, on the other hand, seems to be doing fine. They are just incredibly pissed. America will be forced to either evacuate their forces from the region, or use nuclear weapons to neutralise Iran. This choice will have to be made within a week. Also, the shortages of oil will become a thing of immediate concern within 7 to 10 days, which is half the time to projected end of supply. This is also the point where everybody starts to panic in earnest, because at that point even if everything instantly restarts, which it won’t, the shortages are already in the pipeline, baked into the supply chain. Also, one third of the world’s production of artificial fertiliser production is in the Gulf, and it’s been disrupted. This will automatically cause disruptions in food production, and higher food prices. It’s already baked into the supply chain. The other third of fertilisers comes from Russia. This makes Russia both untouched by this, and in high demand.

America formally has lots of oil and gas, but it remains to be seen how much of that exists on paper alone. A country that has as much oil as they claim to have wouldn’t need to deplete their strategic oil reserves as much as they are doing, which makes me think most of the data is fake, like everything that comes from America. This is now going to be tested in earnest.

Israel is having a strategic problem at the moment and probability of them using nuclear weapons to solve it is pretty high, in my assessment. Since they are open to air attacks now, the time to decide is already ticking.

This puts my assessment of probability of nuclear use by either America or Israel within two weeks at very high. Trump and the people around him sound completely irrational, as if they were getting high on their own supply for too long and they lost all connection to reality. Israel feels pretty desperate, like it’s now or never, they are faced with complete annihilation and they have to act now. There was a 4.2 magnitude earthquake in Negev desert, near Dimona, mid January, which looks like a nuclear test that nobody talked about. If that is so, it would mean that they wanted to know whether their stuff actually works before they used it.

On first nuclear use, I expect things to escalate rapidly.

 

10 thoughts on “Countdown”

  1. From Telegram:

    "The Middle East war has turned container shipping into a “wild west”, with carriers adding thousands of dollars in charges and dumping containers at far-flung ports, according to removal companies and customers.

    The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following Iranian strikes and fears of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have prompted shipping lines to suspend bookings and reroute goods. Fire after strikes on Sunday over Dubai’s main port, Jebel Ali, has triggered further cancellations and congestion.

    The largest shipping groups, including MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, have told customers they reserve the right to invoke a 19th-century rule to allow them to leave containers at the nearest available port at their client’s expense.

    Charges for shipping containers, meanwhile, have risen as much as fourfold on certain routes

    @Slavyangrad"

    This is all already baked into the market and there are going to be price hikes and shortages even in the case this normalises, rather than escalates. The fuel shortages are going to be systemic as well – closed production, damaged facilities, and so on. This doesn't just reset to normal, it's already as bad as covid.

    • It seems I developed a strong allergy on AI written articles 🙂
      Not saying content is wrong, it’s just AI footprint is driving me crazy because it’s everywhere and it seems almost no one is capable of writing even a paragraph without AI.

      • Not just oil – prices of everything are going to go up. Shipping is already being disrupted, and oil prices are a basic input. Availability is going to be disrupted as well. This is already covid-level bad even if everything stops escalating and returns to normal tomorrow, and it's going to get worse as the refineries are being bombed today.

        • "💢 Iran struck major energy infrastructure across the Gulf on Wednesday, Thursday in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli strikes on South Pars gas field, hitting sites tied to global oil and gas supply. Here’s a breakdown:

          🔸Qatar — Ras Laffan LNG hub: The world’s largest natural gas export facility was hit, with at least one missile penetrating defenses and causing “extensive damage” and fires. A second wave of strikes Thursday caused further damage, QatarEnergy said.

          🔸UAE — Habshan gas facility & Bab field: Iran targeted Habshan, a key processing hub that handles much of Abu Dhabi’s onshore gas output, and the nearby Bab oil fields, one of the UAE’s largest production areas. While missiles were intercepted, debris sparked fires and forced a shutdown at Habshan. The UAE called it a “dangerous escalation” threatening global energy security.

          🔸Saudi Arabia — Riyadh refineries: Ballistic missiles targeted facilities supplying the capital’s fuel market, with capacity of about 130,000 bpd according to the WSJ. Air defenses, Saudi Arabia claims, intercepted the strikes, and debris caused limited damage. But videos showed massive fires at the site.

          Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan confirmed two refineries were “attacked,” while not clarifying the extent of damage. Unconfirmed reports online also indicate fires near Yanbu, a key Red Sea oil refining and export hub that Saudi Arabia has been ramping up exports from to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

          • Drop Site

          @Slavyangrad"

        • Exactly. It's going to be way worse that Covid; in 2020 economy was doing fine and was just past the 2019 peak. Over the past few months, McDonalds had to actually lower prices and introduce cheap breakfast deals, because their customers are unable to pay even for cheap fast food. There is a limit how much you can raise prices, and it's seems that's where we are right now. After that, economy shrinks, and businesses must absorb higher prices or go bankrupt, and they already absorbed a lot during Trump's tariff wars.

          And that's all before any Iran war effects and aftereffects.

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