The problem with the nukes at Incirlik

There’s been lots of talk about the nukes in the Incirlik base in Turkey. One news site reported that they were being transferred to Deveselu base in Romania. So, what’s actually going on there and what’s the problem?

First of all, the nukes in question are the B61 nuclear bombs, the stupidest and the most outdated cold-war era weapons, whose usefulness today is basically zero. The only problem I see with those weapons is not even that they are going to fall into enemy hands. The problem that I see is that enough of a circus can be created around that base for one bomb to disappear, or, even worse, that the transfer of the weapons enables “someone” to cover up the fact that one bomb was already “misplaced”, in order to create “The sum of all fears” scenario, where the Americans, and here I mean the players behind the scene, might detonate the nuke in one of their own cities in order to declare the state of emergency, suspend the constitution, the civilian government and bring the country under military rule, while at the same time initiating a “retaliatory” nuclear strike at some enemy or another, throwing the world into a nuclear nightmare.

So, I’m not afraid of those bombs as such. They are militarily useless and probably should have been dismantled in the 1990s. The only reason why there are in Incirlik is to give Turkey a false sense of importance as a NATO ally. Nukes that are not mounted on rockets are basically a third or fourth line of defense, they are not seriously counted on, they are not feared and they are easily forgotten. However, once they are forgotten they are easy to “misplace”, and one such militarily irrelevant weapon can be a formidable terrorist or a false flag weapon.

So, let’s analyze this further. Let’s say the Americans really do move those nukes from the Incirlik base. It is seriously unlikely for them to be transported to Deveselu. First of all, those things are airplane bombs. They need to be stored near a nuclear-certified airfield, in an underground bunker with certified personnel. As far as I know, and I can quite easily be wrong, Deveselu has no such infrastructure, and it would actually be more dangerous to transport the nukes there than to leave them where they are now. If I wanted to transport them somewhere, I would do it to some facility in Europe that already stores nuclear weapons of the similar kind, so that no additional infrastructural overhead is needed. Such facilities are Kleine Brogel air base in Belgium, Büchel or Ramstein bases in Germany, Aviano base in Italy, and Volkel air base in Netherlands.

Now, if there is something I don’t know, such as the possible fact that Americans have nuclear-tipped Tomahawk cruise missiles stored in Incirlik base, and if they moved those to Deveselu in Romania, and installed them alongside the AEGIS systems, the Russians might be very, very pissed off at that fact, to the point of reducing Deveselu to the status of a glass parking lot. I cannot exclude that, but it’s a long shot and it’s not the thing that worries me. What I’m worried about is that the chaotic situations like the one in Incirlik are the ideal opportunities for something to get unintentionally or intentionally misplaced or lost, with the aforementioned consequences. And if something was already “misplaced”, this would be an ideal opportunity for this to be covered up.