Zerg rush vs. geopolitical judo

Let’s return to the Ukraine war.

The things are proceeding slowly, but conforming to my predictions; the Russians are slowly grinding down the Ukrainian fortifications in Eastern Ukraine, and apparently they are treating this as part of their military training; they are rotating troops with the apparent goal of providing as much of their military with combat experience, while limiting strain to individual units. The goal of this is to have as much of their military as possible in the state of greatest possible battle readiness in case of a much bigger war.

Also, we need to look at this from a strategic viewpoint. The declared strategic goal of NATO is to weaken and cripple Russia, both economically and militarily. Ukraine is only a weapon, a sacrificial country whose purpose is to die on the sacred altar of harming Russia. From Russian perspective, the strategic goal is to apply geopolitical Judo – don’t directly oppose force with force, use the enemy’s actions against them (and I don’t mean the Ukrainians), trip them out of balance, avoid being caught into something that will prove to be a death spiral as a function of time, always see the big picture and try to get long-term outcomes that are favourable. Seeing Russia as a bear is popular in the west, but it’s very deceptive, because that picture would make sense during the reign of that lumbering drunkard Yeltsin. The Russians are trying to navigate a complicated line between traps and pitfalls, avoiding a nuclear confrontation if at all possible, avoiding huge military losses if at all possible, avoiding situations where their enemies have the upper hand, and keeping their economy in a good condition. Winning the war in Ukraine exists only in the context of those priorities, meaning that they don’t care about finishing it quickly. They want to finish it in a way that will minimize their losses and maximize the difficulties and financial pressures to their enemies; “quickly” doesn’t even enter the equation, because it’s not some super-expensive war across seven oceans and seven mountains; it’s their own back yard, with supply lines so short, it might as well be a standard military exercise. Yes, people die, but the Americans and the British made sure they would die in any case, so it might as well be on Russian terms.

If American type of warfare is a “Zerg rush”, Russian type of warfare is geopolitical science. It’s actually weird how it conforms almost perfectly to a mathematically ideal model of minimal expenditure of resources. If Americans intended to bleed Russia, they achieved the opposite, because the Russians can keep this up indefinitely, while their enemies created a black hole for resources that is sucking in their collective economies.