My analysis is based on the following assumptions:

– Israel uses the USA to protect itself, however this has limits and is most effective if Israel is in an actual and acute danger. The limits of this were shown when Netanyahu was trying to convince the Americans that Iran is “this close” to having atomic weapons, and everybody was “naah, not convinced, but nice try Bibi, have a nice day now”.

– In case America disappeared from the world scene (for instance, due to financial collapse that would make it unable to project military power for decades) Israel would find itself in immediate danger of being destroyed by the neighbouring Arab countries and Iran.

– Israel’s approach to this problem includes efforts to divide Iran from the Arab countries, and Arab countries among themselves, in order to prevent the situation where all their enemies present a united front. Also, keeping the world in perpetual dependence of the American financial system makes the situation where any oil-producing country risks American sanctions a very good weapon of deterrence.

– Recently, however, the entire fiat currency system has been showing signs that usually indicate imminent collapse, due to American abuse of the system to sanction rival powers under every silly excuse. Also, the fact that America has been exporting its own inflation and financing their prosperity by exporting misery to the rest of the world has not been unnoticed, and the BRICS countries are very close to completely leaving the dollar-based financial system and migrating to something of their own design.

– Furthermore, China and Russia managed to broker peace in Yemen and peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia, mostly because Saudi Arabia has been pressured, blackmailed and abused by America one too many times and decided to seek refuge in the BRICS system, along with Iran, and they decided that they both have more issues with America than with each other. This is a very dangerous thing for Israel.

– Israel is having a problem with their own younger generations, who don’t understand the precarious position their country is in.

– Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, is accused of corruption and if he leaves office, he is likely to go straight to jail. He is therefore highly motivated, for personal reasons, to cook up a serious war that would make it possible for him to avoid unpleasant personal outcomes. It just happens that the international situation of Israel is as dire as his own, and their high political, intelligence and military circles must be aware of this, and willing to cooperate with him in order to cook up a situation that will pre-empt the natural and highly probable outcome for Israel in case no aggressive action is taken.

– America needs a precedent where nuclear weapons are used in war, but they don’t want to do it first; they just want a green light for their own use, either in response or according to a precedent. So far, Russia proved resistant to being goaded into first use, which is seen by the Americans as a nuisance and an aggravation.

So, what does Israel want? They want America to destroy the enemy states that surround them, most importantly Iran, because everything else is either already degraded, or is merely a gas station masquerading as a country (talking about Saudi Arabia and the Emirates here) without any industrial capacity. Also, they want all of their potential enemies degraded to the point of not being able to threaten Israel. They are not threatened by goat herders with AK47s.

The most straightforward way to achieve those goals is to wait for Iran to organize one of those inevitable attacks they are always planning, via their sock-puppets Hamas and Hezbollah. This attack must be allowed to succeed, at least to the point where it creates a legitimate threat, but not to the point where the actual existence of the state is at risk. Israel will then be seen as justified in taking revenge upon the perpetrators, but as this revenge becomes severe enough, Iran will act to protect its assets in the region, and Israel will declare war upon it. America will become involved, of course, but will try to no get into an open war with Iran; they just want to protect Israel from unmanageable consequences. As situation in Israel gets worse, they will nuke Iran, and possibly also the Hezbollah central in Lebanon. America will use its international influence to present this as legitimate self-defence, and in order for this to look credible, it would be helpful if Iran sunk an American aircraft carrier, hopefully the new one that’s been plagued with issues and is a failure anyway. Once the precedent of using nuclear weapons “for defensive purposes” has been established, further nuclear escalation will ensue.

I can’t quantitatively assess probability of this course of action at this moment, but I believe it is not less than 30% or more than 70%. This means there’s a good chance for a more moderate outcome, but still a quite high likelihood of things getting really bad really quickly. My personal feeling says this is very serious and not business as usual.

Probability of oil prices going up is almost 100%.

Probability of a refugee crisis in Europe is over 90%.

Probability of nuclear weapons being used in the following year is over 60%.

Probability of a great economic collapse of the West in the following year is 50%, almost 100% in 5 years.

Probability of the West losing the ability to control the price of gold is very similar to the probability of the great economic collapse of the West.

Probability of a great supply-side collapse in Europe in the following year is over 50%.

My recommendations remain unchanged from before, because the specific events might be unexpected, but the entire situation was predictable.

Today the Palestinians performed a very well planned and executed attack on Israel, so successfully that I have to suspect Iran to have been behind it, and the most incredible thing is that Mossad didn’t sound a warning ahead of it, at all. Unlike the previous Palestinian attacks, which were purely terrorist exercises, this one actually looks threatening, and is at least revenge for general Soleimani and all those sabotages of the Iranian nuclear programme in the past years, and things might get even more serious in the following days. 

The most important thing is that both Israel and their allies depleted their heavy artillery stockpiles in their misguided attempt at weakening Russia and helping Ukraine, and they might have critically weakened their ability to defend themselves against this, and nobody will be there to help them, because all of their allies are in the same pickle. 

As for Ukraine, judging by the changing tone of the Western press, the public in the West is being prepared for either the inevitable Ukrainian defeat, or for the next round of extreme NATO escalation. However, there have been clear signals sent from Russia and Belarus that providing Ukraine with long-range missiles that can target the interior of Russia will have a nuclear response.

ps.:

I’ve been thinking about the most likely explanation for this.

Mossad seems to have failed. However, this is very unlikely, since lots of things must have been in motion on the Palestinian side, lots of weapons were imported, lots of communications must have been going on. Then I thought, what if Netanyahu told them to sit on the information, after he’d been informed? What if he deliberately allowed it to happen, so that all this chaos would erupt, and he’d go into Gaza, kill everybody and be the saviour of Israel? Possible, but what would have been his motivation, considering the cost to Israel, in lives, equipment and prestige?

Then I thought – hmm, he’s been having a serious investigation/trial against him over there, for bribery, fraud and what not, and a trial is still ongoing. He must think that if he leaves office, he’s going straight to jail… unless he does something that will make him so popular, that his political opponents will prefer to drop charges against him. Or he just keeps riding the emergency powers forever.

I don’t know whether this is true, but it certainly makes more sense than Mossad not seeing this thing while it was still in the planning stage.

Yesterday, a private plane carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner group, and 9 of his staff, crashed, with no survivors.

There are several interpretations of this. The first is that it was an accident. Accidents are always possible, but somehow I don’t think so.

The second interpretation is that Prigozhin’s political ambitions turned him into a very serious source of strife and contention in Russia, where he actually tried to take his private army to Moscow in order to try and pressure the government to basically put him in charge of the military. They shot down several aircraft and got some good men killed. Putin defused this very volatile situation very carefully, and I still don’t know what the fuck that was all about. The entire thing stinks of hidden games and double play. So, the second interpretation is that Prigozhin had further plans for his Wagner group that would further his political ambitions, unlike the rest of the Wagner soldiers who had no problem being absorbed in regular military forces, and Putin basically ordered the FSB to get rid of him, so they shot down or sabotaged his plane, killing him and some of his inner staff. If this is the case, it’s a huge exception from the way Putin usually deals with bad actors who threaten Russia’s political stability; he usually publishes discrediting facts about them, finds some conventional crime they committed, has them arrested, tried and put in prison. The idea that Putin kills his political opponents is nonsense only the Westerners believe in. He’s a legalist, and has powerful legal instruments at his disposal, and he’s very proficient not only in real Judo, but also in political Judo. He doesn’t use blunt instruments if there are alternatives. However, Prigozhin might actually be an exception, because if true things are published about his likely crimes (have in mind that he had two private jets in the air at the time, which means he was working with incredible amounts of money that didn’t really go into the armament and salaries of Wagner soldiers), this might put a bad light on the Wagner group, whose soldiers are seen in a positive light in Russia, and this would create unnecessary internal strife that Putin doesn’t need, and Prigozhin already abused this fact. Taking him out and then absorbing his private army into the regular armed forces might have been desirable. However, this doesn’t mean that it was actually done. It only means nobody will cry over his fate very much.

The third possibility is that he was taken out by the same Ukrainian/CIA assets that have already been killing “undesirables” in Russia, and the Ukrainians already put him on their list. This is certainly a possibility, because it fits the modus operandi of Ukrainian intelligence – they use classic terrorist acts with bombs and don’t really care about collateral damage. They hate, they kill those whom they hate, and intimidate the rest.

To be honest, I initially thought the second option was the most likely one, but now I am rather partial to the third one. It’s interesting that there are still no official statements from the Russian government, which would mean that they don’t know how to handle this – they don’t have a prepared story to run, and don’t know whether to go with “good riddance” or “they killed our hero and now there’s going to be hell to pay”. I am certain that the black boxes from the airplane are being analysed and if the crash was due to an explosion on board or a missile strike, things are going to get very interesting very quickly. However, if the crash was due to a technical malfunction and the Ukrainians don’t admit they caused it, the entire thing will be shrugged off, because Prigozhin was an unbalanced person on an ego trip and nobody will miss him.

I’ve seen a video of the crash and it’s consistent with either a missile strike or an explosive device.

There are strong indicators of imminent American market collapse – the insiders are betting against America and selling American assets, similar to what happened in 1929.

Also, there are signs that the leftist governments in America and Europe plan to interpret any kind of non-extreme-leftist election victory as an “extreme right wing takeover of government”, which means we are having an extreme-left takeover of government and cancellation of democracy, which was a fig leaf hiding the hand of totalitarian oligarchs anyway. Canada basically announced that they will join the USA leftists in overthrowing any non-leftist government, and the Germans are planning to outlaw the only actual grassroots political party, the AFU. The supposedly leftists governments everywhere are merely a gay-looking fig leaf hiding outright fascism behind the surface, and the general populace is very close to being done with them altogether. The entire thing is a powder keg waiting for the right spark.

Fascism: a combination of a strong state and large corporations uniting forces to oppress the people. Yeah.

My recommendations are to avoid the herd mentality, and stay tangential to the zeitgeist. Focus on God. You already know my financial recommendations – everything significant in physical gold and silver under personal control, but keep enough currency in the bank account and in form of cash for one month of expenses, because you have to remain practical. Normalcy bias is a great danger, because we had two years where not much was going on and that created a very deceptive atmosphere, because things were going on in the background if you knew how to look. The “powers that be” tried to postpone collapse by all means at their disposal for quite a while, which means that the system is now analogous to a supercooled liquid which freezes instantly on the slightest provocation.

The entire thing is coordinated by one globalist mob, so I would expect things to happen instantly everywhere. There will be no time to react – the borders will be shut, you won’t be able to use Internet banking to transfer money from your account, the ATMs will have a very small limit on cash you can withdraw and so on. Physical gold and silver will be back-ordered by months, and the banks will refuse orders to wire money out anyway. Whatever you have planned, execute it now. Go through your emergency preparedness supplies and refill and refresh everything. Cash recommendation is 500 USD/EUR per person, everything above that in physical gold and silver. Don’t count on long-range communications such as the Internet being available. Everybody might be cut off from their remote assets and very likely restricted in movement to their current place of residence, and some kind of a curfew will be introduced; consider the covid restrictions a test run of what they have in store for the real thing. Keep under the radar, the evil ones are the most powerful now and you don’t want to attract attention to yourself before the foundations of their power crumble. Remember, the government isn’t here to take care of you, it is here to take care of itself; when they train for “zombie apocalypse”, shooting the zombies and keeping them out of where the “normal people” are, by normal people they mean themselves and by zombies they mean you.