The real issues with IMF

I’ve been reading this article and I think it misses the point in several ways.

First of all, IMF treaty is completely obsolete today: you don’t need ground based intermediary-ranged rockets to threaten targets in Europe. The Russians demonstrated how they can easily do it from the Caspian lake ships, they can do it with the Baltic fleet as well as the flying platforms. So threat level doesn’t necessarily increase with the same weapons mounted on stationary ground launchers.

Second, the weapons themselves don’t define the threat level. The political situation does. So essentially the American program of demonizing, threatening and encircling Russia is what’s increasing the threat level.

Third, and most important, this doesn’t necessarily have anything to do with Europe, it might all be about arming Taiwan with rockets that can reach mainland China with nukes. This way America can create a scenario where it can wipe out China while not using its own ICBMs and risking retaliation in kind. Of course, it would be really crazy to expect China not to retaliate against the actual culprit, but everything America does lately is just that kind of crazy. They piss on people and don’t even have the decency to say it’s raining.

Fourth, if it comes to the point where Europe is threatened by the intermediary nuclear-tipped rockets, it means it’s global nuclear war, and Europe is fucked however you look at it, so again this doesn’t increase the threat level.

Fifth, the intermediary-ranged nukes were never about threatening Europe, they were about shortening the reaction times in a first-strike scenario against Russia. Europe was never a target, it was a missile launching platform pointed at Moscow. So if you want to kill Russia in such a way that it can’t retaliate, you first surround it with anti-missile defenses, so that you can shoot down anything they retaliate with, and then you bring in the short reaction time weapons, such as the nuclear-tipped stealthy cruise missiles which aim at the Russian command posts and nuclear sites. That’s what the Americans seem to be doing, which means they are confident they can take out Russian submarines as well. It is my opinion that they, as always, missed several crucial things that will bite them, but they themselves always act as if nothing can go wrong. They are practically cornering the market of baseless overconfidence at the moment. Almost everything they do is more harmful to them than it is to the intended target, and yet they do it, again and again.

Scorched earth

I was thinking about the current American-orchestrated coup attempt in Venezuela.

Something there doesn’t make sense, and not in ways one would expect. The fact that America violently interferes in other countries’ affairs is expected, especially so if it’s in Latin America. It’s almost normal, and certainly not out of the ordinary.

However, removing the Chavista regime from power doesn’t make sense from an American perspective, because it’s the perfect showcase of why socialism sucks and should never be allowed to take power. It is the most effective proven method of reducing a prospering country to utter destitution in a very short time frame. Having in mind that one should not interrupt his enemy when he’s making a mistake, or showing everyone why his way should not be attempted anywhere else, why the hell are Americans trying to interrupt Maduro when he’s proving their point regarding political and economic systems?

Also, Maduro was at a very desperate point before the attempted coup. It is obvious that the Chavista economic model brought the country and its populace to a desperate position and that more of the same is not an answer. Essentially, the only way this designated heir of Chavez could stay in power is through support of a foreign power, and apparently, that’s what America just provided. The Venezuelans who would otherwise have considered rebelling against Maduro for his failed economy will now support him to the death just to defy the American attempt to take over their country. The way to falsify this hypothesis is if the Americans actually proceed to depose Maduro. That would lend credence to another interpretation, which I will now attempt to formulate.

The second interpretation is that the Chavista regime in Venezuela is a cute and useful tool for Washington to demonstrate the perils of socialism, but only if it remains safely contained. However, if it is used by Russia and possibly China to establish a foothold in the American back yard, then it becomes another matter. Also, Russia and China could stabilize Venezuela with trivial ease, and then proceed to establish their military, economic and political presence in the country and the region, essentially creating a stationary airplane carrier right under the America’s soft underbelly. A chaotic and unstable Venezuela is greatly preferred to a stable, recovered Venezuela allied with Russia and China. So, America had to choose between the situation in which Maduro got so desperate by his economic and political position that he invited Russia to fix his economy, which will likely succeed in a timeframe of a few years, during which Russia will establish a strong, possibly nuclear-armed military presence there, and having Venezuela completely reduced to a failed state, using Ukraine/Libya model. The international policy price of choosing the latter would have been deemed high in other circumstances, but as things stand now, America hardly has any soft power credit to lose, and is reduced to controlling the press and the politicians in client countries with more direct methods. This indicates that they are preparing something nasty enough that all of this will be swept under the carpet and forgotten, or, alternatively, that it will not matter.

The third, least likely interpretation is that American actions are non-strategic and resulting from the internal chaos within the CIA and the Pentagon. Albeit possible, I don’t find it likely. I think the chaos in their system exists only on the outward layer and is a result of the CIA using its assets (including but not limited to the entire press corps and the social Marxist groups) to sabotage the President. The core of their actual non-elected government seems to act strategically, but the level of urgency and desperation in their moves indicates that they understand the state of their economy and they seem to be executing a short to mid-term scorched earth strategy.