There has been increasing talk in Russia about needing to detonate a nuclear weapon in order to stop the creeping escalation of the war by the West – basically, if they don’t want to be in the position of a slowly-cooked frog, they need to jump out of the pot and presumably make some shocking action that will snap the West out of their complacency and belief that nuclear weapons will of course never be used so they can defeat Russia by conventional means.
At this point, France had basically announced that they will enter Ukraine with their military in an official capacity and, basically, sit on crucial points because the Russians “won’t dare attack them”. The Russians already announced that the French soldiers in Ukraine will be priority targets. The next argument is “but then France might use nukes against Russia”. The Russian assumed response is “go right ahead, see what happens”.
The terrorist attack in Moscow was clearly ordered by the West and implemented by the Ukrainian intelligence. Simultaneously, the British cruise missiles are being fired by the British on Crimea. The Russians are supposed to pretend it’s raining, and not the UK pissing on them. Also, everybody got comfortable with Russians being cautious and moderate in their response. Essentially, Putin’s moderation and caution encouraged escalation to this point, so this strategy is obviously not working to cool down Western hotheads. We can easily project this into the future, where at some point Russia will be forced to do a full nuclear strike because things got too far. If I can see this, obviously the Russians can see it as well, because it’s not exactly rocket science, it’s more like the basic game theory, where de-escalatory actions are seen as a sign of weakness by a belligerent actor that thinks it is permanently and absolutely exempt from consequences because they have any consequences trip-wired to maximum escalation.
I actually disagree with the Russian analysts who recommend doing an aerial nuclear test, or nuking some military target as a warning. Their assumption is that the Americans are doing this because they are unaware of the nuclear consequences. My analysis, however, says that the Americans actually want the nuclear consequences, because they know that their time is up anyway, and they’ve been slowly building things up to this point with the express purpose of causing a nuclear exchange, thinking they will be able to come out on top after the dust clears. They also likely want to have extreme measures enacted in order to prevent the elections, which would be disruptive to the team currently in power. Essentially, if the Russians do nothing provocative, the Americans will escalate to the point where the Russians either lose or do a nuclear strike. If the Russians do something provocative, the Americans instantly escalate. In either case, there’s a nuclear exchange, and the only way the Russians can actually have a non-fatal outcome is to attack the American nuclear forces and wipe them all out pre-emptively, because the one that strikes first will have the best odds. Also, I think this is all being discussed in Moscow.
I already recommended elevated preparation measures three weeks ago, which was right in time for this current situation, so I have nothing new to recommend.
