I found this on Telegram this morning:

Australia’s Energy Minister: “We only have enough gasoline for 18 days, diesel fuel for 16 days, and aviation fuel for 14 days. And a ship from the Persian Gulf takes 2 to 4 weeks to arrive.”

I went to check the sources, and I found this. Basically, the statement was from the beginning of March, and the Russians just did the math, and they are very good at math. It checks out.

I would assume that everybody who is dependent on Arab oil is in a similar situation. The Russians and everybody attached to them as a source are perfectly fine. The American colonies are fucked.

This means that, as of now, Russia is the most powerful economic force in the world. They determine who lives and who dies. Everybody else is living on strategic reserves that are being depleted quickly, because they are trying to bring down oil prices in order to pretend that, politically, this is nothing. This means they will all run out of strategic reserves within two to three weeks, after which there’ll be doomsday.

So, either everybody instantly takes measures to extend the duration of their strategic reserve, by raising oil prices and rationing supply, and take measures to secure Russian oil, because it’s not sure how much of a surge in supply the Russians will be able to create, regardless of intent. Those things have technological limits. Pipelines are designed for some projected demand and so on.

Israel and America seems to have run out of air defence. Everything Iran launches now, hits the target. Iran, on the other hand, seems to be doing fine. They are just incredibly pissed. America will be forced to either evacuate their forces from the region, or use nuclear weapons to neutralise Iran. This choice will have to be made within a week. Also, the shortages of oil will become a thing of immediate concern within 7 to 10 days, which is half the time to projected end of supply. This is also the point where everybody starts to panic in earnest, because at that point even if everything instantly restarts, which it won’t, the shortages are already in the pipeline, baked into the supply chain. Also, one third of the world’s production of artificial fertiliser production is in the Gulf, and it’s been disrupted. This will automatically cause disruptions in food production, and higher food prices. It’s already baked into the supply chain. The other third of fertilisers comes from Russia. This makes Russia both untouched by this, and in high demand.

America formally has lots of oil and gas, but it remains to be seen how much of that exists on paper alone. A country that has as much oil as they claim to have wouldn’t need to deplete their strategic oil reserves as much as they are doing, which makes me think most of the data is fake, like everything that comes from America. This is now going to be tested in earnest.

Israel is having a strategic problem at the moment and probability of them using nuclear weapons to solve it is pretty high, in my assessment. Since they are open to air attacks now, the time to decide is already ticking.

This puts my assessment of probability of nuclear use by either America or Israel within two weeks at very high. Trump and the people around him sound completely irrational, as if they were getting high on their own supply for too long and they lost all connection to reality. Israel feels pretty desperate, like it’s now or never, they are faced with complete annihilation and they have to act now. There was a 4.2 magnitude earthquake in Negev desert, near Dimona, mid January, which looks like a nuclear test that nobody talked about. If that is so, it would mean that they wanted to know whether their stuff actually works before they used it.

On first nuclear use, I expect things to escalate rapidly.

I’ve seen multiple respectable analysts agree that we are in the beginning phases of World War 3.

I disagree. World War 3 started when NATO rejected Russian “non-ultimatum” in December 2021, and as a result, Russia went into Ukraine in order to protect itself, in February 2022. It’s just that the war itself was a very careful and protracted affair, because both parties tried to avoid things getting nuclear.

It’s not an unprecedented thing. From the formal beginning of the World War 2 it took years until the fighting started in earnest; the powers basically declared war on each other and then did nothing, as they were very cautious after the huge losses of WW1 that were still in living memory. This time, it’s about America trying to destroy all competition, but not wanting to be glassed by Russia, which is why they used dastardly and roundabout ways – basically, find some stupid bastards who can be convinced to hate Russians and kill them, the way they now attempted to seduce the Kurds into killing Iranians, but failed. They deceived Europe into destroying its economy by severing their connection to Russia, so Europe is now in a hopeless situation, on a steep downward trajectory. They tried to suffocate and starve Russia, but this failed so far, simply because Russia is too big and too essential. The plan is to destroy smaller disobedient countries first, and then attack China. Then, after they glassed China, they will isolate and starve Russia, until its economy collapses and it can be broken down into multiple weak, balkanised countries mired in corruption and dependent on the West for survival of their corrupt ruling class.

Iran is the last country in their way before attacking China. China must know they are next, but they probably have the same problem as Russia and India – a weak, amoral ruling class that would rather make a deal with the corrupt West than fight it. They all think American madness will stop before it’s their turn to fall. They are all mistaken.

So, it’s not that we are about to enter a world war. That’s already years behind us. What we are likely to enter now is the final phase of the world war – the phase similar to the end of the non-combative phase of the WW2, before the fighting started in earnest. Everybody is very reluctant to go there, because this phase consists of first nuclear use, then a small nuclear exchange, then a total nuclear exchange. Iran is now in a position where they are starting to understand that this is not going to end until they are destroyed, because Israel won’t allow it. They know that they will likely be glassed if they salt Israel, but as things are, they will be first weakened, and then destroyed and enslaved. A peaceful resolution is not a realistic option. They tried, multiple times; didn’t work. They might decide to go quietly into the night, or not. Depends on their leadership.

As for China, it’s watching, and it’s currently doing nothing. If Iran falls, they are next. After they fall, Russia will be alone, without allies, without Chinese manufacturing resources and market for their hydrocarbons, and they will die.

America and Israel attacked Iran again, although it would be more accurate to say that Israel attacked Iran using America, again, because they weren’t happy with how it went the last time; basically, both Trump and Iran were happy to conclude the previous war as soon as possible, with token damage inflicted. So, it is my interpretation that this time, Israel convinced Trump that Iran will fold and disintegrate immediately if they kill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. What they, of course, knew, is that the opposite will happen – Iran will feel honour-bound to escalate the war to the point where neither party will be willing or able to just proclaim victory and finish it.

So, what are the goals now? For America, the goal is some kind of a regime collapse in Iran, or disintegration of Iran as a state. Since this is extremely unlikely to the point of being impossible, this means America doesn’t have an exit strategy, at all. They will try attacking until they are left without ammunition. Inevitably, they will suffer some extreme loss, such as an aircraft carrier being sunk or irretrievably damaged, and then they will be forced to use nuclear weapons to finish it.

For Iran, the goal is equally unclear. Ideally, they would want Israel and America to be permanently and fatally damaged, to the point of finally fucking off and leaving them alone. Since they think this is unrealistic, they are trying to survive long enough for their enemies’ corpses to float down the river of time. This means they don’t benefit from a direct confrontation, but now they are being forced into it, and there is no obvious way out. I mean, there is – they could always “salt” Israel, make it permanently and completely uninhabitable using dirty bombs, but then nuclear weapons would be used against Iran as well, and they also probably have some kind of a religious interdiction against that. But we do need to have in mind that this is technically an option for them, and Israel exists only because Iran isn’t fatally threatened. If push comes to shove and someone uses a nuke against them, I’m pretty sure they will “salt” Israel, and then all hell will break loose, everywhere.

So far, Iran’s retaliation has more-less paralysed oil and gas supply through the Strait of Hormuz, and this, together with the rest of the damage to the Emirates and everything else there, will cause serious issues to the global economy, which will persist even if the situation were to normalise immediately, which it won’t. The price of oil is going up, and America will now have to try to tear it down. If they fail, both themselves and their allies will find themselves in an immediate economic crisis, while Russia will get an advantage; China won’t be greatly affected because they are plugged into Russian supply. This is damaging the West primarily. The liquefied gas supply from Qatar has also been stopped, and it would take half a year for that to be restarted in earnest. This means Europe is going to either restart their Russian purchases, which is unlikely because they made enemies out of Russia, which is unlikely to just let this go at this point, or they are going to have a serious energy crisis.

I am expecting global supply lines to be compromised for all sorts of reasons soon enough, which will limit availability of things, putting pressure on local sources, which will result in prices going up. Production of artificial fertilisers might be further compromised, with availability and price of food becoming an issue.

This, of course, assumes a gradual and linear escalation of things not much further than they currently are. However, if something really big happens, all bets are off. Big powers are already itching to use nuclear weapons because they are out of conventional options, and with some big escalatory event, the temptation might become too much.

So, what are my recommendations? I think it’s too late for prepping. The crisis is already upon us; gold and silver started their exponential takeoff, so they are probably too expensive to buy at this point. The time to prepare by putting money there was years ago. Spiritual preparations are another matter, which is why my new book exists, I’d say.

I found something interesting on Telegram today.

Today is the anniversary of the creation of the soul-killer called UPA

83 years ago, on October 14, 1942, one of the bloodiest and most terrifying terrorist organizations in world history was created – the UPA. The Ukrainian Insurgent Army.

The UPA was created under the full patronage of the Germans from scattered bands of OUN members, policemen, and camp guards. In this matter, Bandera outpaced his main competitor – Andriy Melnyk, and it was to the rotten Bandera that the Germans entrusted the formation of the UPA.

The motto of the Bandera terrorists quickly became the slogan “There must be blood up to the knees for Ukraine to be free.”

And the Bandera fiends spilled blood abundantly. They killed everyone – Poles, Belarusians, Russians, Hungarians, Lithuanians, prisoners of war, and even their own villagers for the slightest disobedience.

Researchers of this bloody drama have counted over 650 methods of killing used by the Bandera executioners.

For insufficient cruelty, the “Security Service” killed the fighters themselves without any remorse.

It was a real conveyor belt of torture, suffering, and death.

The Volhynian massacre, which the Bandera followers carried out against the Polish population in Volhynia, claimed the lives of 150 to 300 thousand people.

In total, at the hands of the punitive Bandera forces, 850 thousand Jews, 220 thousand Poles, more than 400 thousand Soviet prisoners of war, and another 500 thousand peaceful Ukrainians were killed. 20 thousand soldiers and officers of the Soviet Army and law enforcement agencies were killed, as well as about 4-5 thousand of their own UPA “soldiers” who did not show sufficient cruelty.

And only thanks to the selfless heroism of the fighters of the Soviet Army, NKVD, MGB, and SMERSH, and thanks to the courage of the local residents, this Bandera conveyor belt of death was destroyed.

Remember how the modern Ukrainians chant “Glory to the Heroes! Glory to Ukraine”? Well, those blood-thirsty criminals are the “Heroes” they mean. This Bandera character is the one they praise today and name streets after. In the pro-Western, “progressive” part of Ukraine, that is.