I found this on Telegram this morning:

Australia’s Energy Minister: “We only have enough gasoline for 18 days, diesel fuel for 16 days, and aviation fuel for 14 days. And a ship from the Persian Gulf takes 2 to 4 weeks to arrive.”

I went to check the sources, and I found this. Basically, the statement was from the beginning of March, and the Russians just did the math, and they are very good at math. It checks out.

I would assume that everybody who is dependent on Arab oil is in a similar situation. The Russians and everybody attached to them as a source are perfectly fine. The American colonies are fucked.

This means that, as of now, Russia is the most powerful economic force in the world. They determine who lives and who dies. Everybody else is living on strategic reserves that are being depleted quickly, because they are trying to bring down oil prices in order to pretend that, politically, this is nothing. This means they will all run out of strategic reserves within two to three weeks, after which there’ll be doomsday.

So, either everybody instantly takes measures to extend the duration of their strategic reserve, by raising oil prices and rationing supply, and take measures to secure Russian oil, because it’s not sure how much of a surge in supply the Russians will be able to create, regardless of intent. Those things have technological limits. Pipelines are designed for some projected demand and so on.

Israel and America seems to have run out of air defence. Everything Iran launches now, hits the target. Iran, on the other hand, seems to be doing fine. They are just incredibly pissed. America will be forced to either evacuate their forces from the region, or use nuclear weapons to neutralise Iran. This choice will have to be made within a week. Also, the shortages of oil will become a thing of immediate concern within 7 to 10 days, which is half the time to projected end of supply. This is also the point where everybody starts to panic in earnest, because at that point even if everything instantly restarts, which it won’t, the shortages are already in the pipeline, baked into the supply chain. Also, one third of the world’s production of artificial fertiliser production is in the Gulf, and it’s been disrupted. This will automatically cause disruptions in food production, and higher food prices. It’s already baked into the supply chain. The other third of fertilisers comes from Russia. This makes Russia both untouched by this, and in high demand.

America formally has lots of oil and gas, but it remains to be seen how much of that exists on paper alone. A country that has as much oil as they claim to have wouldn’t need to deplete their strategic oil reserves as much as they are doing, which makes me think most of the data is fake, like everything that comes from America. This is now going to be tested in earnest.

Israel is having a strategic problem at the moment and probability of them using nuclear weapons to solve it is pretty high, in my assessment. Since they are open to air attacks now, the time to decide is already ticking.

This puts my assessment of probability of nuclear use by either America or Israel within two weeks at very high. Trump and the people around him sound completely irrational, as if they were getting high on their own supply for too long and they lost all connection to reality. Israel feels pretty desperate, like it’s now or never, they are faced with complete annihilation and they have to act now. There was a 4.2 magnitude earthquake in Negev desert, near Dimona, mid January, which looks like a nuclear test that nobody talked about. If that is so, it would mean that they wanted to know whether their stuff actually works before they used it.

On first nuclear use, I expect things to escalate rapidly.

I’ve seen multiple respectable analysts agree that we are in the beginning phases of World War 3.

I disagree. World War 3 started when NATO rejected Russian “non-ultimatum” in December 2021, and as a result, Russia went into Ukraine in order to protect itself, in February 2022. It’s just that the war itself was a very careful and protracted affair, because both parties tried to avoid things getting nuclear.

It’s not an unprecedented thing. From the formal beginning of the World War 2 it took years until the fighting started in earnest; the powers basically declared war on each other and then did nothing, as they were very cautious after the huge losses of WW1 that were still in living memory. This time, it’s about America trying to destroy all competition, but not wanting to be glassed by Russia, which is why they used dastardly and roundabout ways – basically, find some stupid bastards who can be convinced to hate Russians and kill them, the way they now attempted to seduce the Kurds into killing Iranians, but failed. They deceived Europe into destroying its economy by severing their connection to Russia, so Europe is now in a hopeless situation, on a steep downward trajectory. They tried to suffocate and starve Russia, but this failed so far, simply because Russia is too big and too essential. The plan is to destroy smaller disobedient countries first, and then attack China. Then, after they glassed China, they will isolate and starve Russia, until its economy collapses and it can be broken down into multiple weak, balkanised countries mired in corruption and dependent on the West for survival of their corrupt ruling class.

Iran is the last country in their way before attacking China. China must know they are next, but they probably have the same problem as Russia and India – a weak, amoral ruling class that would rather make a deal with the corrupt West than fight it. They all think American madness will stop before it’s their turn to fall. They are all mistaken.

So, it’s not that we are about to enter a world war. That’s already years behind us. What we are likely to enter now is the final phase of the world war – the phase similar to the end of the non-combative phase of the WW2, before the fighting started in earnest. Everybody is very reluctant to go there, because this phase consists of first nuclear use, then a small nuclear exchange, then a total nuclear exchange. Iran is now in a position where they are starting to understand that this is not going to end until they are destroyed, because Israel won’t allow it. They know that they will likely be glassed if they salt Israel, but as things are, they will be first weakened, and then destroyed and enslaved. A peaceful resolution is not a realistic option. They tried, multiple times; didn’t work. They might decide to go quietly into the night, or not. Depends on their leadership.

As for China, it’s watching, and it’s currently doing nothing. If Iran falls, they are next. After they fall, Russia will be alone, without allies, without Chinese manufacturing resources and market for their hydrocarbons, and they will die.