So, what’s new in Syria.

The Russians threw all but the kitchen sink at it. They moved in their capital naval assets, their capital aerospatial defense assets, airforce assets and probably have several satellites covering it at all times.

Essentially, they put enough of their forces there to perform three functions. First, that Syria doesn’t follow the pattern of Iraq and Libya in becoming a jihadist post-apocalyptic banana republic. Second, that Americans don’t succeed in destroying all Russian allies one by one, and fencing off Russia with a five meter tall concrete wall, according to the principle of “Is the wall finished? – Yes. -Then start filling with water.”

The third function of the military buildup is drawing a line. If the Americans attack any government assets in Syria, it will be an attack on Russia, which will be dealt with swiftly and violently. Essentially, Syria is now under Russian military umbrella.

What does that mean? First of all, it means that a no-fly zone administered by Russian armed forces has been established in Syria. It doesn’t mean that Americans and their allies can’t fly there, just that they aren’t allowed to perform offensive acts without permission from Russian and/or Syrian government. If they do, they will be taken down. And yes, that includes “stealth” aircraft, because “stealth” is bullshit, it’s a problem the Russians solved more than a decade ago with a few lines of code, basically saying that if something with radar signature of a ping-pong ball flies at supersonic speeds it’s not a seagull, it’s an American jet, so don’t delete it as noise from the radar screen, but instead define it as a priority target. If you believe that the Russians couldn’t do it, you’re a fucking idiot. All Russian radar-guided missiles can shoot down “stealth” assets without any difficulty.

Let’s make a high-probability tit-for-tat scenario.

Americans attack a Syrian government asset. The Russians stage a layered response: first, they send a “cease and desist” order. Second, they send in the fighter jets to intimidate the Americans. If that doesn’t work, they shoot them down. This, of course, makes the Americans mad, and so they retaliate against some Russian asset, for instance they barrage the aerospatial defense battery with cruise missiles. The Russians then destroy the asset that was used to launch the missiles. The state of war is then declared between Russia and America. Russia then uses cruise missiles to knock out all important American assets in the middle east and Europe in preparation for a strategic nuclear exchange. I would expect that they knock out all satellites from orbit, starting with the GPS network and all the military assets, tear down all transatlantic cables and start sinking American Ohio class submarines and Nimitz class aircraft carriers, knock down the electric grid in America, knock down the command chain and the nuclear silos, essentially forcing America to immediately surrender without killing off its population.

If America still manages to squeeze off a few hundred ICBMs toward Russia, I would expect 10 out of 200 to pass the Russian anti-ballistic shield, destroying Moscow, St.Petersburg and several other major cities in Russia. The Russians will then get very angry and destroy all major cities in America, killing about 250 million Americans instantly, and the rest will starve, die of various illnesses and resort to murder, plundering and cannibalism before eventually perishing. America will disappear from history, China will take over as the world’s greatest power, Russia will rebuild within a few decades, Europe will be engulfed in a major civil war with the Muslim population, Japan and South Korea will make a peaceful alliance with China, North Korea will be taken over and transformed peacefully by the South, and Israel will be in shit creek without paddles. Within a hundred years, the American wasteland will be colonized by the Latin-American population from Mexico and turned into a typical Latin-American shithole of violence, corruption and poverty. Russia will be reduced to China’s protectorate. Europe will become a war-torn shithole. All the rich people who escaped to New Zealand will be dug out of their holes, killed and their carcasses thrown to the dogs, as everybody will understand it’s all their fault. Australia will be commandeered by China. Chinese economy will collapse, as it is based on export which will vanish, and popular revolt will destroy their socio-political system, turning them into a civil-war-torn shithole.

Everybody who will have anything positive to say about America will be seen the same way as the neo-nazis are seen today. Civilization, as it is now, will never recover. There will be endless regional wars that will prevent any accumulation of wealth, global connectivity will be permanently lost, and the world will descend into savegery. This will continue until the next ice age, which will raise the probability of human extinction to double-digit values. It’s anyone’s guess whether human species will exit the ice age at all, and in what condition. So that’s my prognosis if the Americans follow the course they are most likely to follow. They will of course think that they have the military superiority over the Russians, but they are miscalculating because they indeed do have the conventional advantages, but the Russian nuclear forces are two decades ahead of them and the conflict will escalate to nuclear level very quickly. The Americans simply don’t calculate with the fact that they are dealing with a spacefaring opponent now, who can strip them of their high-tech layer and proceed to dismember them very quickly and efficiently. They would be idiots to mess with Russia, but yeah, that’s what they are, so they inevitably will.

As I see it now, there was a reasonable probability of mankind avoiding a nuclear war before the Sochi Olympics; since then, the probability of war rose sharply with every attempt of America to cow the Russians into submission, and now, I put it at 99.9%, because the only way it can be avoided is if America miraculously starts acting opposite to everything it’s been doing since the 1990s. The only way I see the nuclear war being avoided is if the Gods pull the plug first, which is what I hope will happen, because I would seriously dislike dying of dysentery while eating garbage and drinking filthy water in a post-nuclear wasteland.

An American army general directly threatened Russia with war.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wCwJ8pfXXo

Russians are taking the threat seriously and are currently performing extensive civil defense drills for 40 million people, who are test-driving the nuclear shelters and hazmat suits.

Prior to that, Americans stopped the bilateral talks with the Russians over Syria and are now contemplating a military solution to overthrow Syrian legitimate government which they don’t like because they prefer the jihadists, according to a recent leak.

The Russians responded to this “leak” by stating that Syrian army is under their defensive umbrella and any attacking aircraft will be promptly taken down without much investigation where it came from. They also mentioned that “stealth” is bullshit and that their radars see American “invisible planes” just fine.

https://www.rt.com/news/361800-russia-syria-usa-aistrikes/

Essentially, Syria is now a no-fly zone for America and their slave-countries. Technically, they can fly, but they cannot perform combat actions. OK, technically they can perform combat actions too, once.

America can now back down and try to achieve their goals in some way that is less hazardous. But that’s not the America we all know. More likely, they will try to immediately push against the imposed boundaries.

But let’s put it this way. Russia is not really bathing in money. Nuclear shelters for 40M people cost serious money. Massive drills that encompass such a huge portion of the populations are also expensive. This means they are perceiving a serious and direct danger of an all-out nuclear war. And I don’t mean all-out for Harambe.

I’ve been following the situation in Syria lately, both the US-Russia “agreement” and the situation on the ground, and here are some of my thoughts.

First of all, America has almost zero control on the ground, among the jihadists. They will take American weapons, but they will use them to shoot the “Christian dogs” immediately afterwards.

Second, there are no moderates in the opposition there. All the moderates are aligned with the government. For quite a while the rallying call among the jihadists was that Assad and similar “dictators” need to be overthrown, because they are not democratic enough, and guess what, “democratic” there means “Islamic radical”.

Third, if you allowed the people there to elect a government, they would put an Islamic caliphate in power, which is what ISIS is. ISIS is the manifestation of the will of the local populace. What’s immensely worrying is that America if arming and financing those idiots, both directly and through their client states in the middle-east, and that’s why they are so difficult to defeat. Essentially, the Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS are what democracy will produce there, in the same way as it produced the current regime in Iran. It was the result of the popular uprising against American meddling in their affairs, and it’s not going anywhere. So, basically, in the middle-east democracy means radical salafism, an Islamic caliphate. That’s what the Muslims would create if you allowed them to pick their own government, and that’s why the only way to introduce some semblance of Western values, progress and technology there was to impose some kind of a secular dictatorship.

Fourth, the main difference between America and Russia at this point is that Russia wants to stabilize the middle-east and avoid the spread of chaos and war, and America wants the opposite, it wants to completely decivilize the middle-east in a state of perpetual war where all the cold-war era client states have been destroyed, and the local Islamists essentially have no financial or industrial capacity for spreading Islam to the west.

Fifth, in the long-term, what America seems to be doing might actually save the Western civilization, if they are actually doing what I think they are. In the short-term, it causes regional chaos, which seems to export itself into Europe and America through the wave of migrants. Those migrants are too stupid to take part in the Western economy and can only serve as drain on our resources and form dens of terrorists and troublemakers. Essentially, they are worth nothing and cost us dearly.

Sixth, I don’t know which troubles me more, that America seems to insult and provoke Russia so blatantly, or that Russia reacts so calmly. Russian calmness most likely means they are simply buying time and forcing America to start the nuclear war, which they accepted as inevitable. Were it not so, they would probably try to avert it with an aggressive posture. This entire thing looks like a game for the public opinion after the war, where America wants to kill all the Russians while portraying them as aggressors and itself as a defender of peace, while Russians seem to say “we know you’re the aggressors, just go ahead with whatever you have planned, but don’t expect us to take part in your games”. The Russians are very careful not to do anything that could be used as an excuse for the start of a nuclear war. However, they are prepared for it.

Interestingly, although a bear is used to symbolize Russia, I think they are acting more like a rattle snake. They are sounding their warning but they remain in a strictly defensive posture. If you ignore the warning and step on them, they will bite you, but they will not attack first, they will not leave their defended zone. Also, I noticed a very interesting thing – Americans seem to be laying traps for the Russians, things like the artificial Ukraine crisis, where they expected Russia to react by invading Ukraine, but Russia evaded the trap and instead opened a completely different theater of action in Syria. America now tries to create a situation in Syria where Russia will have to react in a way conducive to the nuclear war that they desire, but I expect Russia to evade again and open a completely different theater to project its influence. Essentially, what America seems to be doing is provoke the rattle snake to strike, so that it can cut its head off, but the rattle snake sees through it and acts very strategically. America is more powerful, but the Russians are smarter. The entire situation looks like a conflict between an IQ 90 bully and an IQ 130 geek, where America is the bully. The usual development of such conflicts is that the bully keeps beating up the geek, but the geek strategically uses his advantages in such a way that he suffers through the ordeal patiently, finishes school with high grades, creates a tech startup company and earns millions of dollars, and the bully gets to deliver him pizza. Essentially, the geek knows he can’t win the battles, but he can position things so that he survives them just long enough for the strategic situation to shift to his advantage.

The most worrying thing in the entire situation is that America behaves like a bully who thinks he’s invulnerable because all the power in the world is on his side, and nobody will stop him. He will bully whomever he feels like, and he will control the narrative in order to present the victim as the villain. America acts in a way that is consistent with a serious power trip of someone who never had to endure a crushing defeat, and that’s the worrying part, because if that’s true, it means they don’t even understand or care for the warning signs of the rattle snake, and they will simply proceed to attack.

Their problem is that the Russians and the Chinese see through them, they understand what they are dealing with, they have time on their side and they will strike, when it comes to the point of “use it or lose it”. And considering the IQ difference, they have a very good chance of completely surprising the Americans and winning. The Americans are very powerful, but they are overconfident, reckless, internally conflicted and stupid. This is not a winning combination.

There’s been lots of talk about the nukes in the Incirlik base in Turkey. One news site reported that they were being transferred to Deveselu base in Romania. So, what’s actually going on there and what’s the problem?

First of all, the nukes in question are the B61 nuclear bombs, the stupidest and the most outdated cold-war era weapons, whose usefulness today is basically zero. The only problem I see with those weapons is not even that they are going to fall into enemy hands. The problem that I see is that enough of a circus can be created around that base for one bomb to disappear, or, even worse, that the transfer of the weapons enables “someone” to cover up the fact that one bomb was already “misplaced”, in order to create “The sum of all fears” scenario, where the Americans, and here I mean the players behind the scene, might detonate the nuke in one of their own cities in order to declare the state of emergency, suspend the constitution, the civilian government and bring the country under military rule, while at the same time initiating a “retaliatory” nuclear strike at some enemy or another, throwing the world into a nuclear nightmare.

So, I’m not afraid of those bombs as such. They are militarily useless and probably should have been dismantled in the 1990s. The only reason why there are in Incirlik is to give Turkey a false sense of importance as a NATO ally. Nukes that are not mounted on rockets are basically a third or fourth line of defense, they are not seriously counted on, they are not feared and they are easily forgotten. However, once they are forgotten they are easy to “misplace”, and one such militarily irrelevant weapon can be a formidable terrorist or a false flag weapon.

So, let’s analyze this further. Let’s say the Americans really do move those nukes from the Incirlik base. It is seriously unlikely for them to be transported to Deveselu. First of all, those things are airplane bombs. They need to be stored near a nuclear-certified airfield, in an underground bunker with certified personnel. As far as I know, and I can quite easily be wrong, Deveselu has no such infrastructure, and it would actually be more dangerous to transport the nukes there than to leave them where they are now. If I wanted to transport them somewhere, I would do it to some facility in Europe that already stores nuclear weapons of the similar kind, so that no additional infrastructural overhead is needed. Such facilities are Kleine Brogel air base in Belgium, Büchel or Ramstein bases in Germany, Aviano base in Italy, and Volkel air base in Netherlands.

Now, if there is something I don’t know, such as the possible fact that Americans have nuclear-tipped Tomahawk cruise missiles stored in Incirlik base, and if they moved those to Deveselu in Romania, and installed them alongside the AEGIS systems, the Russians might be very, very pissed off at that fact, to the point of reducing Deveselu to the status of a glass parking lot. I cannot exclude that, but it’s a long shot and it’s not the thing that worries me. What I’m worried about is that the chaotic situations like the one in Incirlik are the ideal opportunities for something to get unintentionally or intentionally misplaced or lost, with the aforementioned consequences. And if something was already “misplaced”, this would be an ideal opportunity for this to be covered up.