Ukraine analysis

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It’s becoming clearer to me what happened in Ukraine recently.

Apparently, the Ukrops tried to have an end-summer offensive they kept harping about for months in order to milk NATO for resources, and now they had to show something. Initially, they attacked Kherson, but that ended poorly because the Russians treated this as a priority because it defends Crimea, so the Ukrops were either killed or repelled. Furthermore, the Russians intentionally set the situation up in such a way as to lure them into holding indefensible areas and slaughter them there.

Then, and this is quite important, the Americans and the British told the Ukrops that they have a better idea – they shared intelligence showing that the Russians only have token forces in Kharkov area, and they even sent their own men and equipment alongside Ukrops. The Russians also have intelligence so they found out about this and started to withdraw forces from this area in order not to sustain losses, and ceded quite a bit of ground in the process, including, and that is also important, some cities that are to become the sites of Ukrop purges of “collaborators”.

Apparently, this was a red line for Russia, and they decided they had enough of fucking around and it’s time to increase the pain dial to 2. Also, they decided that they had enough pretending that golden rain is falling every time America and Britain decide to piss on their heads, and this might result in Ramstein and some other locales being turned into smoking holes in the ground. Also, they stopped giving a fuck about the “international community”, and in the future they might just do whatever and tell the enemies to go pound sand.

The Russians stopped a centimeter short of declaring war on NATO, but I have a hunch they might give zero amount of fuck for anything related to chapter 5, and if something participates in war against them, it will fragment into tiny burning particles.

We are facing escallation of war in the immediate future, and all should assume this to be a fact and plan accordingly.

Update

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I moved into the new apartment I bought on Hvar island, so one can imagine I was quite busy, and obviously I did not follow the news anywhere as closely as I did in Zagreb. It’s not because I would be lacking in Internet speed; I have 35 Mbit download and 12 Mbit upload:

In Zagreb, I had a “homebox”, basically a router with a built-in SIM card that connects to the 4G network, and I had 24Mbit download and 22Mbit upload. Yes, the upload speed was higher, but the overall speed variability and lag were quite bad. Also, I have 5G mobile coverage here:

Of course that’s on half signal, this is on full signal:

Upload speed is not great on either network, but I managed to get by with a fraction of that, so I guess I’ll live. The download speed is stellar, at least for my standards which are a tenth of this. There are no fiberoptics available on the island, which is unfortunate, but, also, I’ll live, since there weren’t any available on either ot the two locations in Zagreb where I used to live recently. All in all, my Internet connectivity is improved.

The reason why I’m out of touch is that I’m deliberately reducing my exposure to the news, because it was stressing me out so much I needed a break from it all, so it’s intentional and quite deliberate. I check my mail and keep connected to work, I check the private forum, but beyond that, I’m surrounded by a pine forest with crickets and I find this much more appealing than humans, whom I am thoroughly sick of. The main cause for this profound aversion is the fact that they are so abrasively godless, they literally hurt my spiritual inner senses for “listening to God”, and they, spiritually speaking, turn everything they touch into shit, like some kind of anti-Midas. A person who has God in their inner vision turns every place they inhabit into a tirtha, a place of pilgrimage. A godless person turns every place they inhabit into a pigsty, and they remember God only when they are in need of something to curse when they hit their finger.

Democracy

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I’ve read an incredible statement by the idiot woman who is apparently German minister of foreign affairs:

Germany will back Ukraine ‘no matter what voters think’ – FM

Annalena Baerbock says supporting Kiev matters more than expected winter unrest

If I give the promise to people in Ukraine – ‘We stand with you, as long as you need us’ – then I want to deliver. No matter what my German voters think, but I want to deliver to the people of Ukraine,” Baerbock said at one point.

“I have to be clear that this holds on as long as Ukraine needs me,” she said, referring to the EU embargo against Russia.

“We are facing now wintertime, when we will be challenged as democratic politicians. People will go in the street and say ‘We cannot pay our energy prices’. And I will say ‘Yes I know, so we help you with social measures.’ But I don’t want to say ‘Ok then we stop the sanctions against Russia.’ We will stand with Ukraine, and this means the sanctions will stay also in wintertime, even if it gets really tough for politicians.”

Initially, I thought “how is it a democracy if politicians intentionally work against the interest of their own people, sacrificing them for the sake of helping a foreign country (which by the way is a Nazi cesspool of lies, corruption, theft and murder, and said country is actually an American puppet state that was used for killing its own citizens of Russian nationality and developing covid-based bioweapons designed for preferentially killing Russians; basically, it’s the worst country in Europe by far, and probably one of the worst in the world), and outright declare to work against the interest of their voters?”

And then I thought, silly me, why of course it’s democracy, by the only relevant definition. You see, non-democratic countries such as Russia think democracy is when political parties and politicians declare their agenda, and people go out to the polls to cast votes, and whoever wins most votes can govern the state and then if the people see that they work in their best interest, they keep electing them to power, or otherwise vote them out of office. But that’s not true democracy. True democracy is when the American embassy, State Department and the CIA pre-select the candidates, and tell the controlled press who is supposed to win so that they know whom to uncritically praise and whom to slander, so that the obedient people know who is the most democratic candidate that is supposed to win. If this candidate wins, the elections were free and democratic, and if said candidate loses and people actually elect someone they support (i.e. Trump), this was not democratic and the Russians did it.

Halfway between having the cake and eating it

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I sold 55.13% of my precious metals holdings today, and bought a nice two-storey penthouse apartment and a plot of land.

This move is contrary to what I would consider smart, because the precious metals valuations are below what they should be, and real estate is greatly overvalued. However, I am very happy with my decision, for the following reasons.

First, this is the first real estate property I ever bought; I’ve been renting so far. The problem is, the very nice place I had rented since 2009 to 2021 lulled me into a false sense of complacency; I had a very unproblematic situation there (other than a humidity/mold problem) until the earthquake that damaged the structure so hard, the flat roof became porous to water, and the owners couldn’t fix it while I was inside, and probably can’t fix it at all due to the nature of the damage, and when water intrusion became so bad it flooded the central heating boiler and we lost both hot water and heating during the winter, I had to move in the most inopportune moment, with huge rental prices and incredibly poor choice. Renting no longer looks like a great idea, especially on the eve of a great geopolitical disaster that’s developing as we speak. Also, there is a problem with real estate that’s even worse than price, and that’s availability, The choice is poor, and when a good one appeared on the market, together with a piece of land I could later use for whatever purpose, I decided to halve both my risk and my potential earnings from metal growth; having no place that I can reliably depend on in this situation looked like something that’s far too dangerous in comparison with the possible reward in the best case scenario; the risk/reward ratio was poor. I have nothing against risk, but having so much money in form of metal, and not having a place of my own, in a situation where renting no longer feels like a good solution, that was foolhardy.

Also, my original reason for buying precious metals was to save for real estate, because money on a bank account is always too tempting to spend on some “lesser goal” that invariably appears; someone always “needs” a new car, or something along those lines. Also, I don’t trust banks as far as I can throw them, and keeping money there feels inherently dangerous. As I had a very strong “hint from above” to buy gold bullion, that’s what I eventually did, after initially dismissing the “hint” to my detriment. The problem is that I started thinking about precious metals then, and decided that they are hugely undervalued and a price revision is somewhere in the future, making it a very tempting prospect to just hold on to the gold until this comes to fruition, and only then solve the real estate problem. However, this is not the whole story, as I tried to buy real estate at several points before, and it turned out that either the houses were poorly built or inadequate, or the sellers were unreliable in some way; in any case, by trying to find something good for several years, I learned how hard it is to find that “unicorn” place, and so when one appeared, and passed several of my tests, I decided to just go for it and split my holdings just about straight in the middle, between real estate and precious metals.

Buying land was a spur of the moment thing; it felt like something that makes my situation less limited and allowed me to explore options in the future, if need arises, and although it increased the cost by a quarter, it increased potential benefits by an order of magnitude, so I just went for it.

It is good that I could do this and not enter the worst of the crisis with no money; that would be even worse than entering it without a place of my own, from which I can’t be arbitrarily thrown out when the landlord feels shit hit the fan too hard and he wants his house back. I remind you that laws and contracts are worth very little in a societal breakdown scenario. However, you can’t eat real estate, and being completely without money because I bought real estate was the reason why I missed out on a few previously available, and marginally acceptable places; buying them would dry me out completely. This, on the other hand, feels financially comfortable.

This recent drop in gold price did hurt me somewhat, but it only reduced my profits from gold by a fifth or so; it reduced my profits from 12% to 10.5%. As I said, it hurt, but not to the point where it would really compromise anything. I would be lying if I said I didn’t expect gold to grow more, but all in all, if I just left the money on the bank account, I would probably have spent it already, and it would also generate no interest if I didn’t. This way, I had moderate earnings, the kind you expect from a solid stock market investment, not from something that supposedly just sits there and makes you no money.

The nice thing is, nobody is going to ask me why I didn’t just invest money in crypto, because those who did are still nurturing their very tender nether regions. 🙂

 

Trust the government

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…not:

That’s what it looks like when idiots try to pursue an ill-conceived ideological agenda and they aren’t even able to do simple logistics. And those are the people who would teach us moral virtue, brow-beat us for disobedience, and wage war with Russia and China.

The problem with these idiots is that they “trust their feelings” about “what is right” instead of doing the math, like, we want electric cars, let’s see if it’s doable. How long does the battery last, how frequently do you need to charge it and for how long, where do you need the charging stations and how many, how much electricity can you pull through the existing installations and is it enough for charging electric cars, what do you need to upgrade, and is there enough electricity in the grid to support this additional load?

The same idiots sanctioned Russian gas and oil for “moral reasons” (because waging a war against a Nazi puppet-state of your strategic enemy who is developing bio-weapons there, specifically designed to preferentially kill Russians and have “plausible deniability” about the source, -> oh they must have eaten bats, those crazy primitive Russians; waging war against them is incredibly immoral and everybody should do something to support the Nazi puppets, because that’s the right thing to do, because those who attack are always in the wrong and that’s why we all supported Saddam… oh wait), the Americans told them they’ll provide them with the “freedom gas”, it’s going to cost a bit more but that’s the price of freedom, and what did I say, I said there isn’t any American gas, it exists only in the PowerPoint presentations. Guess what happened, there actually isn’t any American gas, Europe is going to have a very cold winter and its industry is going to die, and even more importantly, its agriculture is going to die and then everybody is going to starve to death, and it’s all a part of someone’s plan because the goal is to kill you all because you’re bad for the environment.

Basically, the people who plan to kill us all because we are bad for the environment are the same people who are too stupid to install chargers for the electric cars because they just suck at planning and doing basic logistical math.

Yeah, but by all means, trust them with all your lives because they mean well and they know what’s right. It doesn’t matter that they are stupid and can’t organize a public toilet properly; what matters is that their hearts are in the right place. 🙂