The power of trends

Why am I skeptical of Trump’s ability to implement an actual change in America?

Let’s go down my personal memory lane regarding American elections. First there was Carter, who was stale and incompetent and people wanted change, so they elected a dynamic, forceful outsider, a Trump-like figure by the name of Ronald Reagan. He was widely ridiculed for being an incompetent senile idiot who leads with his mouth, doesn’t know how things are done and will most likely stumble into a nuclear war with his blunders. The “progressives” of the time even made a “Spitting image” music video mocking him. What he did was stir things up, make a deal with the General Secretary Gorbachev and the cold war ended. After his two terms, the voters elected his vice-president, the Bush Sr., because they thought they are voting for the continuation of good policies. This, however, did not materialize and the next thing they elected the young, Kennedy-like, energetic, optimistic Bill Clinton, to represent the new generation born after the second world war. During his presidency, Yugoslavia fell apart in a bloody war, misery, crime and corruption flourished in the former Soviet Union, the CIA-financed Mujahideen in Afghanistan made their own state and started planing world domination of Islam, and Bill Clinton was fucking his intern, playing sax and projecting his Kennedy-like smile to the camera. Nevertheless, America then had money, things were good and nothing directly threatened them, so people were generally pleased with him, but still chose to elect a Republican as a follow-up, because they were tired of Kennedy-like presidents who, like Kennedy, fucked everything that met the prerequisites of being female and being left unattended. They elected Bush Jr., who was an idiot, but since they thought they had no pressing issues to solve, they thought a benevolent idiot playing golf and not fucking interns was exactly what they needed in the white house. However, Al Qaeda then actually managed to succeed with their plans of striking at American symbols, from the second attempt. People seem to have forgotten that there was a first attempt, with an explosive-filled truck in the WTC basement. That was very close to structurally compromising the building, and unfortunately the engineers actually said how close, on TV. Bin Laden paid attention and the second attempt worked. Unfortunately, it seems that he also had inside help – the plot was allowed to succeed by some elements within the FBI and probably other American institutions, because the plotters were known, they were followed, but nothing was done to hinder them. The doors just seemed to open magically in front of them, because those same elements needed something that would galvanize the population, to threaten it enough to be willing to surrender its freedoms for the sake of security. The president, stupid and incompetent as he was, simply nodded to all such proposals and signed off on everything, including the two stupid wars that the military-industrial complex required to get the military machine going and moving the economy. This massive spending without the additional war taxation to pay for it collapsed the American economy, and by the end of Bush Jr.’s first term, it was in complete shambles. People were tired of endless war, they were tired of their healthcare not working, they were tired of the economy that’s wrecked, and they wanted change, so they elected a young, dynamic, optimistic black guy who promised all kinds of stuff that basically said nothing but sounded good. That’s how we ended up with Obama as president. In his first term, he didn’t do jack shit, because he’s a demagogue and an ideologue who doesn’t compromise, but people were marginally willing to give him a second chance, to finish what he started. As a result, he did more of the same, which is to say, nothing, except trying to look and sound hip on TV.

The problem is, the new post-cold war generation was all about bullshit posturing and not much about getting things done efficiently, so they thought that electing an oppression Olympics champion would solve the “diversity” and “equality” problems that America was supposedly having. They seem to think that the world’s problems add up to some kind of “bigotry” and if they managed to put a black transsexual gay Muslim female in power, that would mean they solved all the problems. This does show what idiots teach at the American universities, producing more idiots with degrees every year, because those idiots can’t find a normal job anywhere in the economy except on the universities, in NGOs and in the media, where they spout their worthless diversity/equality drivel. Since this generation of idiots has a significant voting power, they managed to elect Obama. The only Pokemon they were missing was a female president, and so they attempted to elect probably the most corrupt, egocentric and wicked person in the world as the next one, because it’s not like America has any problems other than diversity/equality posturing. Oh no, their economy is working great, they have no international problems such as a looming nuclear conflict with Russia and China, or immigration of the Muslims, who are the worst culture in the world and are opposite to everything good in every conceivable way. No, the only thing they needed is a vagina-in-chief.

That’s how I see the trends. Obviously, Reagan is an example that you can elect a disruptive candidate, supremely disliked by the “progressives” in the media, who can actually do good things for both America and the world. The similarities with Donald Trump are striking. So, why am I skeptical?

First of all, I am skeptical because a democracy includes powerful checks and balances that prevent one-sided policies. You need to have systemic support in order to implement anything radical. The parliament needs to agree, the courts need to agree, the major parties need to be in consensus regarding the issue, the military must support it, the banks must support it, the industry must support it, and the people in general must support it. Reagan could end the cold war because he had the military that was aware of how closely matched they are with the Soviets and how bad it actually is, he had the people who were genuinely scared of the nuclear war and wanted the threat to end, and he had the Russians on the other side, who were purely defensive, and all it took to end the war was to convince them that America isn’t going to kill them all.

Now, the situation is different. Both the people and the politicians in America can’t agree on the color of shit. Media no longer has an informative role, it’s purely propagandistic and became completely untrustworthy. Due to this, nobody really believes anything or anyone anymore, and all sorts of conspiracy theories float on the Internet, collecting brainless followers. This makes it extremely difficult for anyone to implement anything useful, because every potentially useful project will encounter enormous opposition from various “activists” and “progressives”. Also, all sorts of interest groups will attempt to “earmark” the project with all kinds of pork-barrel spending as a pre-condition for their support. This will all serve to re-enforce the public skepticism of Washington.

Worldwide, the situation changed as well, because America deceived and betrayed Russia after the cold war. I could go into details but this is not the place – basically, what would be necessary in order for trust to be re-established is America to abolish NATO and remove the military assets not only from the Russian borders, but to establish a buffer zone of militarily neutral countries between the Russian borders and France. Everything that took place since the 1990 and now, regarding NATO expansion, should be rolled back. Furthermore, America needs to stop having a military presence at China’s doorstep, and let the regional countries make peace with each other on their own terms. Sure, they can keep Japan and South Korea under a nuclear umbrella in case some idiot in the North Korea gets ideas, but essentially the situation there needs to be unlocked, and it will only be unlocked once China no longer feels pressured by the American military presence on its doorstep. China will then be able to make graceful concessions to its neighbors instead of being forced into strength-posturing.

So, having in mind what it would take for things to normalize, and having in mind how the people are thinking and behaving in the recent years, I am skeptical of Trump’s chances, especially since he’s the second outsider president who’s supposed to bring radical change to the system. Obama was all about hope and change, and the trends just kept rolling. Trump is all about hope and change, and my expectation is that the trends will again determine the result.

Trump for president, Hillary for prison

So, as was completely expected based on the (actual, not propagandistic and fabricated) polls, Donald Trump won the US presidency. In fact, judging on the numbers, there was some significant vote fraud involved in favour of Clinton, because she didn’t lose with the margin that I expected. However, those who did the stealing either miscalculated and didn’t steal enough, or they stole as much as they could and it still wasn’t enough to make a difference. In any case, Darth Hillaria’s faith in the dark side of the Force was misguided.

I must admit that this defeat of the arguably worst person in the world really pleases me, especially since all the lying media and all the pompous, self-righteous communist assholes were cheering for her.

However. The corruption that she represents is still in place. All the Satan-worshipping crazies that financed her, that worked for her in the media, they are still there. They still write the news. The colleges are still controlled by the special snowflakes who are terrified by opinions but who love to use violence. Everything is infiltrated by the Muslims, both through financing and through access to the leftist infrastructure. Economy is still in exactly the same condition, and its collapse has been delayed only by the most desperate of measures. The global situation is still the same. Almost half of America’s voters are stupid enough, indoctrinated enough or just evil enough to have voted for Hillary Clinton. Those people are supposed to participate in the recovery of America? I don’t think so. The communist left is a huge Trojan horse embedded in the tissue of the West, and it will continue to function like cancer of some kind, working diligently on the destruction of both its host and itself.

Trump is competent, but I don’t think he’s actually aware of what a pile of shit he inherited. Also, it remains to be seen if he can put enough of his men in charge to make a difference, or if he will be hindered and obstructed by the pro-Muslim leftist aparatchiks who were put into strategic places in the post-Bush era. And even if he does everything right, it remains to be seen if his vision of a great America will be acceptable to other great nations, who have no wish to live in anyone’s shadow, and who will accept nothing less than partnership.

But he might not get to be sworn in at all. In the interregnum, Obama still has the time to cook up a world war, since the Russian forces will now strike at the terrorists in Syria, and if the Americans jump in to protect them, shit will instantly hit the fan. Also, Saudi Arabia looks like it’s about to go full retard, with all the predictable consequences.

So yeah, I am glad Trump won, but I am skeptical regarding the amount of difference it can make in the long run, because the evil of communism has infiltrated the academia, the media, entertainment and basically all spheres of public life, that influence the opinions of the masses. The people in general proved to be fed up with them enough to elect Trump and to give more credence to Alex Jones than to CNN. However, the leftists are very good at causing damage and at stimulating the lowest impulses in people. Trump is an expert in making a deal, but I don’t think this will suffice. He will also need to clean house, and heads will have to roll.

WTF?

I’m still scratching my head after having read this:

U.S. military hackers have penetrated Russia’s electric grid, telecommunications networks and the Kremlin’s command systems, making them vulnerable to attack by secret American cyber weapons should the U.S. deem it necessary, according to a senior intelligence official and top-secret documents reviewed by NBC News.

Essentially, the Americans just stated that they had committed an act of war against Russia. Sure enough, the Russians are asking them if they heard it well:

Russia expects Washington to provide an explanation after a report claimed that Pentagon cyber-offensive specialists have hacked into Russia’s power grids, telecommunications networks, and the Kremlin’s command systems for a possible sabotage.

One possible explanation is that’s all for domestic consumption, both the allegations that the Russians are interfering with their elections and the assurances that they have a response ready. Both claims might be completely false.

However. What the actual fuck? If they actually have something implanted in the Russian infrastructure, good fucking job telling the Russians so that they can fix it. But having in mind what a bad idea that would be, it probably means it’s all a bluff and they don’t have anything, in which case a) their ever declining credibility just hit rock bottom and b) the Russians were told that they are now fully justified in taking countermeasures against America.

So yeah. Those people have just enough more brain cells than chickens so that they don’t shit on the lawn uncontrollably.

Elections, and why they don’t matter

In a democracy, you basically elect a candidate who has enough of a stakeholder vote to implement a policy. If, by cheating or some other means, a candidate is elected who cannot sway stakeholders sufficiently to implement a policy, you end up with a lame duck president who can’t get anything done. Obama is a good example of that. He is a demagogue and an ideologue who isn’t skilled in the politics of making a deal and getting things done.

So, basically, if you elect a candidate who will stay the course, the general trends in politics and economy dictate the course. If you elect a disruptive candidate, the general trends in politics and economy dictate the course, in the sense that a disruptive president doesn’t have enough power do change anything significant.

That’s why I’m skeptical of all those who believe that Trump winning the American elections can change anything significant. He might have the best of intentions, and is in fact the better of two candidates, but he can’t change anything because the reason behind the current global situation are systemic trends of the kind that cannot be influenced by a president, for better or for worse.

Yes, Hillary is a pro-war candidate, and Trump is a pro-America candidate. Hillary is a crazy person who will yell and threaten at Putin and anyone else, would implement a hardline policy and would cause a nuclear war after a few moves. Trump would want to re-assert American supremacy, and the Russians and the Chinese will say “no thank you, we have this now”. He will then slam his metaphorical fist on the table and play chicken with them, because he would expect them to back down. They will not, and there will be a nuclear war in a few moves. The thing is, Hillary is so pissed at Putin because she already tried to bribe him, to intimidate him and to make him back down, and it didn’t work. Trump is yet to get there, but the result would be the same. The Russians don’t want to be slaves who are ordered around, and the Chinese don’t want to be the manufacturing colony of the West.

Trump also naively thinks he can bring back the jobs that were outsourced abroad. Those jobs were outsourced because in America labor is too expensive, and it’s systemically expensive, because the inherent costs are greater in the USA than anywhere else in the world. This means housing, food, basic expenses, education and health. This in turn dictates the behavior of the labor unions, who press for higher wages. If you reduce the wages below a certain point, you reduce the purchasing power of your population and essentially lose them as a market for your expensive products, essentially pricing your population out of the market. Considering how the American population has the greatest purchasing power in the world, that’s not good. Also, considering how the second greatest purchasing power in the world, the Chinese middle class, is basically uninterested in American overpriced and often underperforming products, it’s not something that can easily be changed by some political maneuvering.

The main reason why America was great is that Europe was torn down by two world wars, and they had an influx of the most competent immigration in the world. They also got industrialized by the war effort, and after that they implemented a lever in the world’s financial system, where US Dollar was the world reserve currency, controlled most of the world’s gold, and was the OPEC trading currency, where anyone who wanted to buy oil first had to buy dollars on the currency market, making it possible for America to print enormous amounts of unbacked money, and everyone had to purchase that Mickey Mouse currency with actual hard assets, or the American aircraft carriers would get parked close to their shores and reduce their country to rubble. Also, they abused other supposedly international systems in such a way as to strongly motivate their own economy while imposing various hindrances and pressures to non-American economies. An example of that is cheap FED money for the venture capital investors, who could pump enormous sums in all kinds of American technology startups, both boosting the American GDP and their technological competitive advantages. So, those are the reasons why America was “great”. It’s not the constitution, it’s not democracy and it certainly isn’t freedom. It’s the combination of military force, control of the world’s financial system and some very lucky historical and geographic circumstances, such as being essentially on an island separated from potential adversaries by oceans on both sides.

The trend is that the time of America’s dominance is over. Also, the trend is that America will not yield its dominant position peacefully. Also, the other forces aren’t willing to put up with American pressures, manipulations and abuses much longer, if at all. Since America still has a military advantage over them, it is likely to try to use that advantage while it is still there. So, America thinks it will win in war and lose in peace. You tell me what is going to be the end result.

Waiting for fire to reach the powder keg

As you can see, I haven’t been writing much on the blog in the recent days. There, of course, are reasons for that.

The main reason is that I’m waiting for the events to unfold. I basically described what I see, but the global situation is now in an unstable situation. The pieces are apparently being moved across the chess board, and until they arrive, there will be apparent calm. I don’t have enough information to know what pieces are being used and with what purpose. I do have a hunch that the Russian aircraft carrier, Kuznetsov, isn’t used as a knight or a bishop, but as a pawn. Also, noise was made in the Western media about the Russian introduction of the Sarmat rocket. It’s simple equipment replacement without deeper strategic meaning. Also, it’s a silo-based rocket, and as such the most vulnerable and strategically irrelevant, which is why the Russians didn’t care to update it sooner.

In the meantime, I’m working, keeping myself in shape by picking mushrooms and chestnuts in the local hills, and I’m catching up with my long neglected photography, because watching the news is making me sick.